novi thesis :: Forecasting methods must improve
A New Approach to Oil and Gas production forecasting & analysis is Needed.
“Traditional” software, equations & workflows have led the industry into a morass
- Manual “one at a time” oil and gas forecasting processes take too long.
- Forecasting methodologies bake in engineering bias.
- Digital oilfield driven automation is essential.
- ‘Area’ type curves with manual adjustments for well engineering design are not investment grade.
- Understanding of oilfield performance drivers for each well is inadequate.
- Oil & gas production performance drivers change over time.
- Bias driven pre-drill forecasting leads to mis-allocated capital.
- Failure to account for the dimensional complexity of forecasting horizontal wells.
- Inadequate data to describe oil & gas forecasting drivers leads to bad engineering decisions.
The challenge is to remove biases, minimize errors, identify performance drivers with proper analogs and optimize the well planning process for oil & gas drilling operators and investors. Novi meets this challenge with data-driven digital oilfield automation software and data.
Novi improves oilfield workflow efficiency
We use cloud based compute + algorithms + software + optimized oil & gas data to increase decision confidence on forecasts while decreasing manpower required
- Speed up development planning workflows for engineers and geoscientists.
- Cut oilfield acquisition evaluation time in half, freeing your engineering team to work proactively where they will have the most impact.
- Use our Digital Oilfield technology to automate forecasting workflows.
How efficient are your workflows? Surviving in Shale 3.0 will require advanced oilfield software backed by powerful machine learning models to meet investor demands demand for lean, efficient operations.
- Analyze performance drivers at the well, unit and asset level.
- Disentangle complex relationships between spacing, stacking, stimulation and subsurface.
- Learn how the impact of oil & gas well variables like completions and spacing change over the life of a well.
- Map production and value sweet spots across an asset or basin in our digital oil field automation software platform.
Cut through the complexity of unconventional reservoirs with advanced machine learning explainability methods. Use our models to evaluate how much each variable matters, as judged by what really matters: the production of your wells relative the the amount of capital you invested.
- Analyze production rate, breakevens, and free cash flow generation under different development scenarios.
- Leverage forecast confidence metrics to understand risk and uncertainty.
- Minimize bias with a data-driven, algorithmic approach to well production planning.
Are you making the right decisions for a winning development program? Novi data scientists and software engineers have developed cloud based oil & gas software and proprietary data outputs that estimate the probabilities of our machine learning forecasts, without prescribing assumptions about what those distributions look like.