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Blog

What can chess teach us about artificial intelligence in oil and gas?

December 16, 2020

If, like me, you haven’t seriously played chess since you were young, you may find the advancements in chess artificial intelligence (or chess “engines”) incredible. But can chess teach us about the future of artificial intelligence in oil and gas?

Chess has long been a focus of artificial intelligence research. The game offers both clear rules (to easily measure success) and sufficient complexity (with at least 10^120 possible moves, no computer will ever be able to “solve” the game, unlike checkers). We certainly have complexity in the oilfield – but we also have the ability to measure success in the form of barrels produced, feet of pay encountered, or time to process a seismic volume.

In this post, we’ll walk through the latest AI in oil and gas market developments in chess and how they might impact the oilfield. Read the full post here.

Filed Under: Artificial Intelligence in Oil and Gas, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

Machine Learning Regional Profiles for Geologic Insights: Mapping Unconventional Production Drivers in the Williston Basin

December 14, 2020

Use of predictive analytics to understand well performance and production drivers across the bakken-three forks play

What drives unconventional oil production? Of course completions, parent-child, and well spacing all play a huge role — but it all starts with the rocks. Understanding the impact and relative importance of the different geologic variables requires REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE. Only then do you have sufficient variation in the underlying properties to learn their effects. The […]

Filed Under: Predictive Analytics, Well Designs, Artificial Intelligence in Oil and Gas, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

Investing in Shale Oil and Gas Wells: Are you the House or the Player?

November 17, 2020

are you the house or the player when it comes to shale well investing?

We want to invest in shale oil and gas wells that operate like a casino. Why? Casinos make lots of money based on a simple concept. Players under all possible outcomes vs the House are at a disadvantage. The probability that they will lose is always greater than the probability that they will win. Casino […]

Filed Under: Automated Well Planning, Drilling Optimization, Well Designs, Digital Oilfield Technology, Artificial Intelligence in Oil and Gas, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

Novi Releases Next Generation of AI-Driven Modeling Pipeline, Increasing the Accuracy and Efficiency of PDP Forecasting

September 30, 2020

09/30/2020: Novi Labs (“Novi”) today announced the release of the next generation of its artificial intelligence-based modeling pipeline. The first application of this patent-pending pipeline integrates a fully automated and highly accurate Proved Developed Producing (PDP) forecasting workflow that is integrated into Novi’s Forecast Engine™.

This allows reservoir engineers and financial analysts at oil & gas operators and financial services companies the capability to automate the generation of PDP forecasts with oil and gas AI software, driving improved accuracy of wedge forecasting, reserves forecasting, and valuation of acquisitions and divestiture opportunities.

Novi’s innovative approach to generating PDP forecasts utilizes Novi’s latest AI modeling pipeline to create highly accurate forecasts. Read the full PR here.

Filed Under: Automated Well Planning, Artificial Intelligence in Oil and Gas, Company News

Analyzing Vista’s Record-Setting Vaca Muerta Wells with Oil and Gas Machine Learning Models

August 26, 2020

Machine learning in oil and gas model showing SHAP values (colored bars), and baseline production expectation (gray) for Vista Pad 3, including the record setting wells (MDM-2061 and MDM-2063).

After the Great Coronavirus Shut-In, Vista Oil & Gas turned back on their new Vaca Muerta pad. A pleasant surprise greeted them. Their oil and gas machine learning model showed the highest production the play had ever seen. Both the MDM-2063 and MDM-2061 wells produced over 2,000 bbl/d on average for the month, with peak […]

Filed Under: Well Completions, Well Designs, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

Making sense of it all: extracting actionable core-data from pXRF using PCA and K-means cluster analysis

August 7, 2020

WHY CARE ABOUT PXRF DATA? Thanks to relatively short scanning times and low operating cost, portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) scanning of geologic core samples has become a burgeoning big data in oil and gas industry, with the technique capable of generating high resolution datasets containing comprehensive major and trace element abundances present in the rock.

We will be using Scikit-learn, an open source machine learning library that supports supervised and unsupervised learning towards a variety of applications. Here we will be utilizing principal component analysis and k-means clustering algorithms to manipulate and segment the big data before visualization.

The process outlined in this blog post develops labeled datasets that can be tied to the core, ahead of the implementation of a neural network. Read the full post here.

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

Novi geoSHAP – estimating rock quality using SHAP values in machine learning models: URTeC 2020 Novi Paper Summary

July 14, 2020

geoSHAP: estimating rock quality using SHAP values in machine learning models

“What do you mean the model doesn’t use **INSERT PET GEOLOGIC VARIABLE HERE**?!” Anyone who’s built and reviewed enough machine learning models and SHAP values will instantly recognize the question above. The algorithm dropped some geologic variable in the feature selection process due to high correlation with another input geologic variable, and someone in the […]

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog, Conference Presentations

Water, water everywhere: oil well water analysis with machine learning models to improve produced water forecasts in the Williston Basin: URTeC 2020 Novi Paper Summary

July 6, 2020

Oil well water production with average 90-day cum for Bakken and Three Forks

How often does an engineer dash off a simple oil well water analysis, doing something like applying a flat WOR to their oil prediction? It’s easy to ignore water, but unexpectedly high production, leading to more produced water, can damage well economics. In the worst cases, it can force shut-in if disposal capacity is full. […]

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog, Conference Presentations

The Changing Impact of Oil Well Design Completions Through Time: URTeC 2020 Novi Paper Summary

June 26, 2020

Average SHAP Value to forecast oilfield completions

“Upsizing well completions increase production 37.5%*!!!” Sure, but when? Where that asterisk lands will have a huge impact on the returns of oil well design completions. If it’s Peak Rate, that might shorten payback. If it’s EUR — now you might have a real valuable well. Oil and gas machine learning models can be trained […]

Filed Under: Predictive Analytics, Well Completions, Well Designs, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog, Conference Presentations

Building Unbiased Benchmarks with Machine Learning Oil and Gas Modeling: URTeC 2020 Novi Paper Summary

June 15, 2020

90% of American drivers say they’re better than average, and 90% of Shale focused Operators have “peer-leading” breakevens, returns and well production forecasts. Suuuure they do! How do you cut through Investor Relations fluff to identify top-performing operators to learn from, or underperformers to acquire? We will use machine learning to build unbiased benchmarks for […]

Filed Under: Predictive Analytics, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog, Conference Presentations

Announcing the Novi Labs Machine Learning in Oil & Gas Blog Student Contest

June 10, 2020

We know that many current students have had their summer plans upended with internships canceled or delayed. To give those students a chance to still differentiate themselves, we are announcing the Novi Labs Machine Learning in Oil & Gas Blog Student Contest. We will pay $500 each to any posts selected for publication to our […]

Filed Under: Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

how does a 3 billion barrel discovery turn into a $3 billion impairment in oil and gas plays?

May 15, 2020

Involvement in exploring a substantial discovery and bringing it to development is an exciting opportunity. There is nothing more valuable to a company than taking an unknown prospect, acquiring the land for low cost, and turning it into a cash generating machine. Finding such an oil and gas play is the motivation for many teams. […]

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

the power of analogy : using novi’s contributing oil well data to understand machine learning predictions

April 30, 2020

All Training Oil and Gas Well Production Data Tree

Whether exploring for oil offshore Brazil or scaling type curves in Lea County, engineers and geologists rely upon the power of analogy to estimate the productivity of a given area or engineering design choice. We use geologic and engineering similarities to group oil and gas wells, then we use an average of that group to […]

Filed Under: Predictive Analytics, Digital Oilfield Technology, Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

trust me, I’m an objective engineer: uncovering the inherent bias in oil and gas forecasts

April 29, 2020

SHAP values by formation for mapping oilfield forecasts

Capital allocation decisions made by Engineers that work at E&P companies are completely rational and unimpacted by their own experiences or personal exposure to the play. Oil well forecasting & completions design recommendations are objective, uncolored by cultural influence, and based on unbiased P50 estimates. If this is your belief, and it must be a […]

Filed Under: Automated Well Planning, Predictive Analytics, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

first large bankruptcy filing begs the question :: is there hidden value in Whiting’s un-drilled acreage worth bidding on?

April 14, 2020

Earlier this month, Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) declared bankruptcy, becoming the first high-profile E&P casualty in the Coronavirus downturn. While it’s unclear how exactly the Chapter 11 process will turn out, we’ve taken the opportunity to dig through their inventory looking for potential bargains using our machine learning software. We calculated breakeven prices for their […]

Filed Under: Drilling Optimization, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

playing enough short game to get to the long game :: revisiting the Parsley-Jagged deal at $30 strip

April 8, 2020

Golf, like drilling oil wells, is a strategy game. When do I go for the green versus laying up and saving par? Sub $30 oil demands a great short game while still preserving upside when it’s time to deploy the long game.

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

the confidence game: optimizing completions for XEC DUC wells in the Delaware using model confidence as a proxy for risk

March 30, 2020

Introduction: Problem we are trying to solve; methodology we are applying to solve it We have written a couple of posts about optimizing completions on DUC (Drilled but UnCompleted) well inventory given the extreme constraints on capital that Operators are facing. In our first post, we focused on QEP’s inventory in the Midland, and then […]

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog Tagged With: Permian, Prediction Engine, Masters Series

DUC, DUC, GOOSE: In a sub-$30 oil environment how can NBL maximize returns with less CAPEX spend in their Delaware asset?

March 25, 2020

Given the extreme capital constraints imposed by a lower commodity price environment, many operators have announced CAPEX reductions and significant rig layoffs. Given these reductions, it would make sense to apply what capital remains to complete through DUC (Drilled, but UnCompleted) wells. If this is true, it would also make sense to revisit the completion […]

Filed Under: Big Data Management, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog Tagged With: QEP, Midland, Permian, Prediction Engine, Masters Series

change of plans: how QEP could optimize returns in their Midland asset in a low-price environment

March 19, 2020

Should QEP change its development strategy in this lower price environment? Using our machine learning models and Novi software we analyzed QEP’s Midland Asset development plans to determine the best plan going forward. Based on evaluation of the data, QEP should consider: Downsizing completion designs in primary zones. Discontinuing development of non-core zones. How much […]

Filed Under: Well Completions, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog Tagged With: QEP, Midland, Permian, Prediction Engine, Masters Series

five ways smart digital oilfield technology & applications might save the Shale industry

March 18, 2020

Bloomberg break-even costs curve can be improved by digital oilfield technologies.

DIGITAL OILFIELD TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW : Let’s face it, the last two to three weeks have been a complete train smash for shale operators and investors. We are price takers at the end of the day, so we as an industry are all trying to do what we always do – pick ourselves up by the bootstraps and find a way forward. I have some ideas utilizing digital oilfield applications that we can use as a foundation to stand on.

In this post, I’m going to discuss where things are at, Level set on what response vectors the shale industry has taken thus far and much more. Read the full report here.

Filed Under: Digital Oilfield Technology, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

less than 10% of remaining Bakken inventory is in the play core

March 16, 2020

With the current oil price downturn, many have started to wonder whether activity in the Bakken will ever return to its previous heights. Using our machine learning models, we estimate that <10% of the remaining inventory is Tier 1, with the real number perhaps <5% due to surface constraints. With lower-tier locations predicted to produce […]

Filed Under: Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog Tagged With: williston, fringe vs. core, geoSHAP

Digital Wildcatters Interview of Novi President Jon Ludwig

March 13, 2020

Novi President Jon Ludwig sits down with the cool cats at Digital Wildcatters for their first ever “video included” DW podcast and discusses Novi’s roots and the future of decision making in shale as continued pressure on strip price forces oil companies and investors to re-evaluate their decision making paradigms.

Filed Under: Company News

oil and gas well spacing and completions: untangling complex interactions with machine learning

February 20, 2020

How much of the oil & gas industry’s recent underperformance comes from misapplication of large completions designs with tight spacing configurations?

Filed Under: Well Completions, Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Blog

Novi’s New Prediction Engine Accelerates Well Planning

February 4, 2020

Novi Labs announces the release of Novi Prediction Engine™, a new self-service software capability that enables rapid modeling of oil & gas capital allocation scenarios in minutes.

Filed Under: Company News

Paramount Resources Integrates Novi’s Machine Learning into Well Planning Workflows

January 28, 2020

Novi Labs, Inc. and Paramount Resources LTD form partnership focused on increasing net asset values by enabling Paramount’s engineering teams to rapidly analyze all possible development scenarios to produce the most capitally efficient drilling plan.

Filed Under: Company News

Join Us at SPE HFTC 2020

November 14, 2019

The SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference showcases existing and new hydraulic fracturing technologies, using experiences from fracture-stimulated wells, and the application of global learnings.

Filed Under: Company News

Bringing Transparency to Oil & Gas Predictive Analytics

November 6, 2019

The oil & gas business has seen its fair share of software vendors who claim magical results delivered via a black box approach.

Filed Under: Company News

Kevin Stambaugh Joins Novi

October 19, 2019

We are excited to welcome Kevin Stambaugh to the Novi executive team! Kevin brings nearly 30 years of experience as a software and product development manager and has a strong record of strategic leadership across early and growth stage startups.

Filed Under: Company News

Novi Version 19.2 Released

September 8, 2019

Over the past couple of months, the Novi product development team has been hard at work preparing the next round of enhancements to our AI-powered well planning software. We are excited to announce that version 19.2 has been released!

Filed Under: Company News

Takeaways from URTeC 2019

July 26, 2019

The second year of URTeC in Denver saw record-breaking attendance, clearly signaling the growing importance and hunger in the oil & gas industry to bring geoscience and engineering together under one roof to discuss the technical trends that are sustaining the shale revolution.

Filed Under: Company News

Novi to Participate in URTeC2019

July 23, 2019

Leader in well planning solutions for unconventional development participates in URTeC panel and showcases latest technology for optimizing well design to enhance rate of return on capital.

Filed Under: Company News

Recap of Novi’s AAPG Ace Talk

May 28, 2019

On May 22 Novi’s chief geophysicist Kiran Sathaye gave a technical presentation at AAPG ACE 2019 in San Antonio on leveraging AI to predict hydrocarbon recovery.

Filed Under: Company News

Novi Raises $7 Million, Welcomes Scott Sherwood as CEO

May 15, 2019

Austin technology startup closes Series A funding round with Cottonwood Venture Partners and Bill Wood Ventures, announces appointment of new CEO to grow and scale Novi’s team and leading AI-driven well economics software platform.

Filed Under: Company News

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NOVI ML IN OIL & GAS BLOG TOPICS

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Recent posts

What can chess teach us about artificial intelligence in oil and gas?

December 16, 2020

Machine Learning Regional Profiles for Geologic Insights: Mapping Unconventional Production Drivers in the Williston Basin

December 14, 2020

Investing in Shale Oil and Gas Wells: Are you the House or the Player?

November 17, 2020

Analyzing Vista’s Record-Setting Vaca Muerta Wells with Oil and Gas Machine Learning Models

August 26, 2020

Making sense of it all: extracting actionable core-data from pXRF using PCA and K-means cluster analysis

August 7, 2020

Novi geoSHAP – estimating rock quality using SHAP values in machine learning models: URTeC 2020 Novi Paper Summary

July 14, 2020

Water, water everywhere: oil well water analysis with machine learning models to improve produced water forecasts in the Williston Basin: URTeC 2020 Novi Paper Summary

July 6, 2020

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