How often does an engineer dash off a simple water forecast, doing something like applying a flat WOR to their oil prediction? It’s easy to ignore water, but unexpectedly high production can damage well economics, or–in the worst cases–force shut-in if disposal capacity is full. Fortunately, advanced machine learning methods developed for oil can be […]
Blog
The Changing Impact of Completions Through Time: URTeC Preview
“Upsizing completions increases production 37.5%*!!!” Sure, but when? Where that asterisk lands will have a huge impact on the returns of any completions decision. If it’s Peak Rate, that might shorten payback. If it’s EUR — now you might have a real valuable well. Machine learning models can be trained to predict a time series […]
Building Unbiased Benchmarks with Machine Learning :: URTeC Preview
90% of American drivers say they’re better than average, and 90% of Shale focused Operators have “peer-leading” breakevens, returns and well production forecasts. Suuuure they do! How do you cut through Investor Relations fluff to identify top-performing operators to learn from — or underperformers to acquire? Simply looking at raw production numbers without the context […]
Announcing the Novi Labs Machine Learning in Oil & Gas Blog Student Contest
We know that many current students have had their summer plans upended with internships canceled or delayed. To give those students a chance to still differentiate themselves, we are announcing the Novi Labs Machine Learning in Oil & Gas Blog Student Contest. We will pay $500 each to any posts selected for publication to our […]
how does a 3 billion barrel discovery turn into a $3 billion impairment?
Involvement in exploring a substantial discovery and bringing it too development is an exciting opportunity. There is nothing more valuable to a company than taking an unknown prospect, acquiring the land for low cost, and turning it into a cash generating machine. Finding such a play is the motivation for many teams. It can be […]
the power of analogy :: using novi’s contributing well data to understand machine learning predictions
Whether exploring for oil offshore Brazil or scaling type curves in Lea County, engineers and geologists rely upon the power of analogy to estimate the productivity of a given area or engineering design choice. Wells are grouped according to geologic and engineering similarity, and an average of that group is used for a prediction. Decision-tree […]
trust me, i’m an objective engineer: uncovering the inherent bias in oil & gas forecasts
Capital allocation decisions made by Engineers that work at E&P companies are completely rational and unimpacted by their own experiences or personal exposure to the play. Recommendations are objective, uncolored by cultural influence, and based on unbiased P50 estimates. If this is your belief, and it must be a belief, please stop reading this post […]
first large bankruptcy filing begs the question :: is there hidden value in Whiting’s un-drilled acreage worth bidding on?
Earlier this month, Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) declared bankruptcy, becoming the first high-profile E&P casualty in the Coronavirus downturn. While it’s unclear how exactly the Chapter 11 process will turn out, we’ve taken the opportunity to dig through their inventory looking for potential bargains. We calculated breakeven prices for their four big remaining acreage chunks, […]
playing enough short game to get to the long game :: revisiting the Parsley-Jagged deal at $30 strip
Golf, like drilling oil wells, is a strategy game. When do I go for the green versus laying up and saving par? Sub $30 oil demands a great short game while still preserving upside when it’s time to deploy the long game.
the confidence game: optimizing completions for XEC DUC wells in the Delaware using model confidence as a proxy for risk
Introduction: Problem we are trying to solve; methodology we are applying to solve it We have written a couple of posts about optimizing completions on DUC (Drilled but UnCompleted) well inventory given the extreme constraints on capital that Operators are facing. In our first post, we focused on QEP’s inventory in the Midland, and then […]
DUC, DUC, GOOSE: In a sub-$30 oil environment how can NBL maximize returns with less CAPEX spend in their Delaware asset?
Given the extreme capital constraints imposed by a lower commodity price environment, many operators have announced CAPEX reductions and significant rig layoffs. Given these reductions, it would make sense to apply what capital remains to complete through DUC (Drilled, but UnCompleted) wells. If this is true, it would also make sense to revisit the completion […]
change of plans: how QEP could optimize returns in their Midland asset in a low-price environment
Should QEP change its development strategy in this lower price environment? Using our machine learning models and Novi software we analyzed QEP’s Midland Asset development plans to determine the best plan going forward. Based on evaluation of the data, QEP should consider: Downsizing completion designs in primary zones. Discontinuing development of non-core zones. How much […]
five ways algorithms, compute and smart digital oilfield software applications might save the Shale industry
We must lean out to survive this price shock. Novi founder Jon Ludwig provides some historical context and outlines the case for operators and finance professionals serving the industry to adopt digital oilfield technologies now.
less than 10% of remaining Bakken inventory is in the play core
With the current oil price downturn, many have started to wonder whether activity in the Bakken will ever return to its previous heights. Using our machine learning models, we estimate that <10% of the remaining inventory is Tier 1, with the real number perhaps <5% due to surface constraints. With lower-tier locations predicted to produce […]
Digital Wildcatters Interview of Novi President Jon Ludwig
Novi President Jon Ludwig sits down with the cool cats at Digital Wildcatters for their first ever “video included” DW podcast and discusses Novi’s roots and the future of decision making in shale as continued pressure on strip price forces oil companies and investors to re-evaluate their decision making paradigms.
spacing and completions: untangling complex interactions with machine learning
How much of the oil & gas industry’s recent underperformance comes from misapplication of large completions designs with tight spacing configurations?
Novi’s New Prediction Engine Accelerates Well Planning
Novi Labs announces the release of Novi Prediction Engine™, a new self-service software capability that enables rapid modeling of oil & gas capital allocation scenarios in minutes.
Paramount Resources Integrates Novi's Machine Learning into Well Planning Workflows
Novi Labs, Inc. and Paramount Resources LTD form partnership focused on increasing net asset values by enabling Paramount’s engineering teams to rapidly analyze all possible development scenarios to produce the most capitally efficient drilling plan.
Join Us at SPE HFTC 2020
The SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference showcases existing and new hydraulic fracturing technologies, using experiences from fracture-stimulated wells, and the application of global learnings.
Bringing Transparency to Oil & Gas Predictive Analytics
The oil & gas business has seen its fair share of software vendors who claim magical results delivered via a black box approach.
Kevin Stambaugh Joins Novi
We are excited to welcome Kevin Stambaugh to the Novi executive team! Kevin brings nearly 30 years of experience as a software and product development manager and has a strong record of strategic leadership across early and growth stage startups.
Novi Version 19.2 Released
Over the past couple of months, the Novi product development team has been hard at work preparing the next round of enhancements to our AI-powered well planning software. We are excited to announce that version 19.2 has been released!
Takeaways from URTeC 2019
The second year of URTeC in Denver saw record-breaking attendance, clearly signaling the growing importance and hunger in the oil & gas industry to bring geoscience and engineering together under one roof to discuss the technical trends that are sustaining the shale revolution.
Novi to Participate in URTeC2019
Leader in well planning solutions for unconventional development participates in URTeC panel and showcases latest technology for optimizing well design to enhance rate of return on capital.
Recap of Novi’s AAPG Ace Talk
On May 22 Novi’s chief geophysicist Kiran Sathaye gave a technical presentation at AAPG ACE 2019 in San Antonio on leveraging AI to predict hydrocarbon recovery.
Novi Raises $7 Million, Welcomes Scott Sherwood as CEO
Austin technology startup closes Series A funding round with Cottonwood Venture Partners and Bill Wood Ventures, announces appointment of new CEO to grow and scale Novi’s team and leading AI-driven well economics software platform.