The Anadarko Basin remains a major unconventional play with a large remaining inventory, but the economics tell a nuanced story. While the basin has consolidated significantly and operators have extended lateral lengths past two miles for the first time, its share of Lower-48 horizontal oil production has declined from roughly 8% in 2018 to only 3% today. The cost curve is steep: top-quartile rock breaks even around $56/bbl, but second-quartile rock requires more than $80/bbl, a sharp deterioration that concentrates economically viable activity.
Our latest Anadarko basin report outlines how the basin has evolved and where the best opportunities remain.
- Novi models ~25,000 remaining locations basin-wide, with an average NPV25 breakeven of ~$79/bbl, higher than most competing plays.
- Approximately 6,000 Tier-1 locations remain, with the Cherokee Formation now representing ~18% of that top-quartile inventory and the Cherokee core is only ~5% drilled. Note: Tier-1 rock has an average breakeven of ~$56/bbl, buoyed by the Cherokee and Woodford (<$50/bbl). Second-quartile rock jumps to $85/bbl, showcasing the magnitude of rock quality deterioration and the steepening of the cost curve.
- At the 2025 drilling cadence, there are ~14 years of “exceptional” return inventory ($75/bbl two-year payout) and ~28 years of “good” return inventory (NPV25 at mid-cycle pricing).
- Devon (pro forma with Coterra) holds the largest gross location count, but Mewbourne leads on Tier-1/2 rock quality exposure, driven by its dominant position in the Cherokee.
- Ovintiv (now Flywheel) and Continental carry the lowest NPV25 breakevens at ~$50/bbl, though Continental’s gassy inventory makes its oil economics sensitive to gas prices.
- At the current reduced rig count (~45 rigs), the total inventory is projected to last to roughly 2050 but only ~15 years of sub-$50/bbl breakeven inventory remains at 2025 cadence.
Figure 1: NPV25 WTI Breakeven Cost Curve ($/bbl), Cumulative Locations
Source: Novi Insights, Novi Forecast Engine, Novi IntelligenceGet the full Anadarko Basin report
Access the Q1 2026 Anadarko Basin Report on Novi Intelligence, including breakeven cost curves, operator benchmarking, and detailed inventory modeling on the Novi Intelligence platform.
