Occidental Petroleum (“Oxy”) holds a long domestic and international operating history, but targeted Permian M&A and portfolio rationalization over the past decade increases US upstream concentration. US production now represents ~84% of total ouput, up from ~57% in 2018. US onshore capex of $3.9 B for 2026 represents 68% of total spend across all regions and segments and 75% of upstream spend (excluding exploration). It will also drive corporate cash flow to service the balance sheet as Oxy continues to prioritize paying down debt-weighted acquisition financing.
- Oxy delivered top-tier Delaware Basin well results in 2024/2025 on a 12-month cum. oil per foot basis and holds one of the deepest remaining inventory positions.
- 8,000+ remaining locations across >63 MM lateral feet trails only COP and DVN in terms of inventory scale.
- Complementary Midland Basin inventory is not as deep. Novi estimates ~10 years of Midland inventory at 2025’s pace and 7 years of sub-$70/Bbl runway on NPV25 basis.
- Oxy is the second largest DJ producer on both existing production and remaining inventory. Remaining well economics are attractive as DJ well costs have come down in recent years, but gas-weighted DJ development is a secondary focus.
- The overall Rockies region projects to stay flat as modest DJ declines are offset by incremental activity to further derisk and scale the oil-weighted Powder River Basin.
Figure 1: Oxy US Production Outlook by Basin
Source: Novi IntelligenceThe full Oxy corporate report is now available on the Novi Intelligence portal
Novi’s inaugural Oxy corporate note focuses on the depth and quality of its Lower 48 inventory only. Please refer to the complete report for a detailed overview of inventory characteristics and economics across it’s Lower 48 assets, capital allocation considerations, and relative competitiveness in respective basins. https://intelligence.novilabs.com/login/
