This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here
Oil production has now declined with about 1/3rd since the top in early 2015, to just over 1 million bo/d. Although total production in September was roughly the same as 3 years earlier, the number of horizontal wells responsible for this production has more than doubled over this time frame. The result of these factors is that now about 2/3rd of these wells produce less than 50 bo/d (see “Well status” tab).
The charts in the “Well quality” tab show that the decline profiles are remarkably similar over time (especially since 2012/2013), except that recent wells recover more oil in the first year. The straight curves on the semi-log plot after this initial period indicate an approximately exponential decline.
The last tab (“Top operators”) makes clear that EOG is by far the largest oil producer in this region, with almost double the production compared with number 2 (Chesapeake).
The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This first overview shows the path that wells from a certain quarter are taking towards their ultimate return. This reveals the very clear relationship between production rate and cumulative production, and how this relationship has changed over time. By clicking on the quarters in the legend, the related wells are highlighted. As in the “Well quality” overview, the number of wells is also here represented by the thickness of the curves.
In the second overview (“Cumulative production ranking”), we can see that 6 counties have been responsible for most of the oil production to date in this region, with Karnes clearly on top.
On Thursday I will have a post on the Permian, followed by an update on the Niobrara on Monday.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months in Texas. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Individual well profiles are estimated from well status & lease production data, as this data is not provided by the RRC. Detailed location data is available for more than 90% of the wells displayed, the remaining wells are shown near the center of the county in which they are located.
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.