Haynesville – update through April 2021

This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 6,051 horizontal wells in the Haynesville that started producing from 2007, through April.

Total production

Natural gas production in the Haynesville grew year-over-year by almost 0.8 Bcf/d in April (0.1 BCf/d m-o-m). In that month, 6.3 Bcf/d was produced by the just over 500 wells that were completed since the beginning of last year (indicated by the dark and light blue areas in the graph above).

Supply Projection dashboard

The rise in the horizontal rig count in this basin has leveled off and came in at 49 as of last week (according to the Baker Hughes rig count)

In our Supply Projection dashboard you can find our outlook based on this kind of drilling activity:

As is visible here, output could continue to rise to over 18 Bcf/d by the end of the decade if we assume that there are no further changes to the rig count and that well productivity also remains unchanged (it’s a simple scenario, more advanced scenarios can be simulated in the interactive version of this dashboard). It is the only major gas basin for which we see significant growth based on current conditions.

Well productivity

In the 3rd tab (“Well quality”), you can see that well results increased strongly between 2015 and 2017, but improvements have since slowed down, on average. Normalizing for lateral length, we find that well performance has not changed since 2017.

Wells completed in the past 2 years are so far heading towards an EUR not far from 10 Bcf of natural gas, on average, as you can find in the following graph (by extrapolating the curves):

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”), the leading 10 natural gas producers in this basin are displayed. Comstock and Aethon Energy are ahead of the others, with over 1.5 Bcf/d of operated production capacity. BP has fallen to the 9th position, after being in the lead for a short while 2 years earlier.

Finally

Next week we will have a post on all covered US states.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

• The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources
• Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
• FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

• You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
• Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items.
• You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
• Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
• You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
• By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
• Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
• The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
• If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Enno Peters

Enno Peters is General Manager at Novi, where he has build an AI-driven data & analytics platform tailored for oil & gas operators and energy investors. Prior to Novi, Enno founded ShaleProfile which was acquired by Novi late 2021.