Haynesville – update through September 2020

This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 5,735 horizontal wells in the Haynesville that started producing from 2007, through September 2020.

Total production

Natural gas production came in just above 10 Bcf/d in September (after upcoming revisions), down by 1 Bcf/d since May, but it has more than doubled since 4 years ago.

Supply Projection dashboard

Although it still produces less than half of its bigger cousin the Marcellus (~25 Bcf/d), drilling activity is now  higher here (41 v 24 hz rigs, according to the Baker Hughes rig count). At this level, we see significant further growth in the years to come, all else being equal:

Output may grow to over 15 Bcf/d by the end of the decade in this scenario. You can develop and save your own scenarios by changing rig count and productivity assumptions in this dashboard (“Supply Projection”) our subscription service.

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”), the leading 5 natural gas producers in the Haynesville can be seen. Chesapeake went from the number 1 to the number 5 in the last 2 years, mostly due to output increases by its competitors.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate Recovery” overview reveals the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.

Although initial production rates are higher here than in the Marcellus, on average, the hyperbolic declines are also steeper due to a lower b-factor. As you can see by extrapolating these curves, newer wells are trending towards an EUR of about 10-12 Bcf. More recent data can be seen by grouping the wells by quarter or month of first production.

Finally

This is our last post of the year. The ShaleProfile Team wishes you a Merry Christmas and a far saver and happier 2021!

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

• The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources
• Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
• FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

• You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
• Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items.
• You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
• Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
• You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
• By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
• Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
• The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
• If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Enno Peters

Enno Peters is General Manager at Novi, where he has build an AI-driven data & analytics platform tailored for oil & gas operators and energy investors. Prior to Novi, Enno founded ShaleProfile which was acquired by Novi late 2021.