This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 15,599 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production from 2005 onward, through December.
Oil production in North Dakota fell by 3% in December to 1.43 million bo/d. Of the 636 thousand bo/d production capacity that was added by new wells in 2019, 89% replaced the decline from existing wells, resulting in a gain of 70 thousand bo/d y-o-y.
After 6 years of increasing well productivity, it appears that the 1,238 wells that came online last year are closely tracking the decline behavior of the 2018 vintage (“Well quality” tab). They are on a trajectory to recover 250k barrels of oil in the first 2 years, after which their production rate will have dropped from 728 bo/d (the peak rate) to just over 100 bo/d, on average.
Of the major operators, Continental Resources saw with 10% the steepest decline in output in December. It is still well ahead of Hess, the number 2 (“Top operators”).
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started.
The following dashboard, taken from ShaleProfile Analytics, shows the total oil production in the top 5 counties in North Dakota, since 2014:
Output in McKenzie is twice as high as in Dunn County. Mountrail used to be the top-producing county before 2013, but it has failed to grow since the oil price collapse in 2014.
Thanks to all of you who visited our booth at NAPE last week. All the feedback and suggestions that you have given us was highly appreciated!
Early next week, we will have a new post.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
I read today ND sees peak of 1.8 million BOPD as Tier 1 locations are becoming scarce.