This interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 18,940 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production from 2001 onward, through January.
Total Production
Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells came in at 1.08 million b/d in January (after upcoming revisions), a decline of almost 200 kb/d from the previous month. Harsh winter weather at the start of the year caused many operators to temporarily shut in their wells. Natural gas production also fell by a double-digit percentage, to 2.9 Bcf/d. Unlike for oil, natural gas production has continued to increase in this state for the last 10 years, and reached an all-time high in December of 3.5 Bcf/d (toggle “Product” to gas to see this), as wells get ever more gassier. Last year 1,035 horizontal wells came online, exactly 300 more than in 2022 (+41%).
Drilling Activity
Drilling activity has steadily increased from the lows in 2020 through March 2023, although it has fallen since then to 31 horizontal rigs as of last week, according to Baker Hughes:
Number of rigs drilling horizontal wells in North Dakota. Source: Baker Hughes. WTI is shown on the right hand axis.
Well Productivity
Novi Labs’ ML models are able to generate highly accurate forecasts, even for wells that recently started production. Based on these forecasts, we can see that, although initial well productivity has dramatically increased over the years, longer term performance has not, on average:
The above chart shows that we expect the average 2023 well in the core of the Bakken to recover 400k bbl of oil during its first 40 years on production, a number that has not changed by much over more than a decade. Although completion designs have greatly improved over those years, tighter well spacing and running out of the best rock has countered these effects.
Operator Productivity Ranking
Well results obviously vary greatly by operator. In following overview you can see a ranking of all operators, based on their average well results since 2019, as measured by the cumulative oil production during the first year a well is producing:
EOG, already active in the Bakken for a very long time, scores best on this metric; the 33 horizontal wells it has brought online since 2019 recovered on average 244k bbl in the first 12 months on production.
Gas Oil Ratios
We already mentioned earlier in this post that wells in this area are getting more gassier. The following dashboard shows in which areas the more gassier wells can be found and how gas oil ratios have changed over time:
Gas oil ratios in North Dakota.
On the map we have displayed all horizontal wells in the Bakken, and colored them by the gas oil ratio in their most recent month. In the graph on the top-right corner total oil & gas production from these wells are shown, as well as the resulting gas oil ratio (in yellow) on the right hand axis. Here you can see that 10 years ago, 1 MCF of natural gas was produced with each barrel of oil, but that this number has almost tripled in 2023.
In the bottom-right corner, we have plotted the average gas oil ratio over time, by vintage year of first production. It reveals that, although all wells are getting gassier over their lifetime, it are especially the younger wells that display a far steeper rise in this ratio.
Top operators
In the final tab of the interactive presentation at the top (“Top operators”), you can find the top 10 shale operators in North Dakota. Continental Resources and Chord Energy are in the lead, with each over 100 thousand barrels of oil of operated production in January. Note that few operators have been able to grow output in the basin over the last 5 years.
Sources
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells.
- FracFocus.org
Brief manual
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individuals or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated as “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in the past month is designated as “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Key Takeaways
- North Dakota horizontal-well oil production was 1.08 million b/d in January, down almost 200 kb/d month over month after revisions.
- Harsh winter weather in early 2024 drove temporary well shut-ins, contributing to double-digit percentage declines in oil and gas output.
- North Dakota horizontal-well natural gas production fell to 2.9 Bcf/d in January after reaching a record 3.5 Bcf/d in December.
- Operators brought 1,035 horizontal wells online in 2023, which was 300 more than 2022 (+41%).
- North Dakota horizontal drilling activity fell to 31 rigs last week, after rising from 2020 lows through March 2023, according to Baker Hughes.
- Novi Labs forecasts indicate the average 2023 well in the Bakken core counties recovers about 400k bbl over 40 years, largely unchanged for over a decade.
- EOG’s 33 Bakken horizontal wells online since 2019 averaged 244k bbl of oil recovered in the first 12 months, ranking highest on that metric.
- Statewide gas-oil ratios increased from about 1 MCF per barrel a decade ago to nearly 3 MCF per barrel in 2023.
