Pennsylvania – update through February 2020

This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 9,531 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through February.

Total production

Natural gas production rose by 1% m-o-m to 19.5 Bcf/d in February. In the first 2 months, 112 new wells came online versus 82 in the same period last year.

Supply Projection dashboard

With the recent dramatic decline in drilling activity in the US, the outlook for shale oil & gas looks bleak. As you can see in our new Supply projection dashboard, the rig count as of last week is not enough to sustain current tight oil & gas output, even though it is likely to drop much further. The horizontal rig count in Pennsylvania is with 24 the highest since early November. But as you’ll note if you select only “Pennsylvania” and look at the gas projection, this level is not enough to keep production from falling.

Sign up for our webinar on Thursday if you would like to learn more about how you could use this dashboard.

Well productivity

Initial well productivity is still at a historical high (see the “Well quality” tab),  as is displayed in the Well quality tab, although the rate of improvements has stagnated in the last few years.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate Recovery” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.

Finally

On Wednesday we will have a new post on the Permian, followed by our webinar on Thursday on the Supply Projection dashboard. You can still sign up for it here (places are limited to 100 attendees): Register for the Supply Projection webinar

Sources

Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

• Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
• FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

• You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
• Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items.
• You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
• Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
• You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
• By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
• Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
• The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
• If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Enno Peters

Enno Peters is General Manager at Novi, where he has build an AI-driven data & analytics platform tailored for oil & gas operators and energy investors. Prior to Novi, Enno founded ShaleProfile which was acquired by Novi late 2021.