This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 31,152 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through April 2021.
Tight oil production in the Permian was flat at 4.0 million bo/d in April (after revisions, horizontal wells only). About half of this was produced from wells that were completed since early last year, as is visualized by the light & dark blue areas in the chart above. Natural gas production, at over 15 Bcf/d, was close to record levels. Note that although April production appears to be down, just over a 1,000 wells were not yet reported (notably Devon Energy in New Mexico).
Over 2/3rds of the horizontal oil-directed rigs in the lower 48 were drilling in this basin, as of last week (228 out of 337, according to Baker Hughes). The last time weekly WTI prices were as high as last week ($73), almost 3 years ago, this number was more than double ( 761).
Our Supply Projection dashboard shows what would happen if drilling activity would stay at this level (although you can simulate your own rig count projections in the interactive version available in our ShaleProfile Analytics service):
As you can see, the lights are green again and production growth will soon resume, if it hasn’t already, although the growth rate will be far lower than in the 2017-2019 time frame.
In the “Well quality” tab, you can find how well performance has improved in this basin over time. The wells that began producing since 2016 peaked at between 500 & 900 b/d, and will decline to about 50 b/d by year 5, after which they will have recovered close to 300 thousand barrels of oil.
The 2 counties with the most rigs are Lea (46) and Midland (37). Here we show a comparison of their average well productivity:
The average performance of the ~4,500 horizontal oil wells that were completed in these 2 counties since 2017 is shown here by county. Average productivity is slightly higher in Lea County, especially if one would normalize for lateral length (possible in our subscription services), as the wells are shorter in Lea (~7.5k feet vs. 10k feet in Midland).
We will have a new post on the Eagle Ford early next week, followed by a post on Pennsylvania.
We are sad to announce that we are unable to attend the URTeC in 2 weeks, due to travel restrictions in place from the Netherlands. We hope to be back next year!
On a more positive note, another large trading firm signed up with us this week. A critical service for them was our REST API, through which accurate and highly up-to-date well and production can be downloaded on demand, which also includes production forecasts on well level, permits and directional survey data. More information on this service can be found here: ShaleProfile Data.
Production and completion data are subject to revisions.
Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
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