Permian – update through April 2023

This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 42,314 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2007/2008 onward, through April 2023.

Total Production

Permian tight oil production grew to just below 5.3 million b/d in April (after upcoming revisions, horizontal wells only). However, April production has only been reported for a little over 70% (this is about 85% on the Texas side), which explains the drop you’re seeing for that month. April natural gas production was around 20.7 Bcf/d (also after upcoming revisions), a new record.

In the first 3 months of this year, 1,345 new horizontal wells came online, vs. 1,413 in the same period a year ago.

Drilling Activity

Drilling activity has softened by 4% since the end of April, to 333 horizontal rigs according to Baker Hughes. This was the first real decline in almost 3 years:

The relative popularity of the Delaware Basin is still increasing, with now 58% of the rigs active in this area of the Permian.

Supply projection

This number of active rigs (333) is however more than sufficient to maintain current output, assuming no changes in rig & well productivity. The following overview, from our Supply Projection dashboard (available to subscribers), reveals that if one assumes a drop 100 rigs from now until September 1st (top chart), Permian production will plateau at the existing level (bottom chart).

Well productivity

Fortunately it is also possible to simulate changes in well productivity over time in our interactive Supply Projection dashboard, as it appears that well productivity has been falling in the Permian. This is especially visible if one divides cumulative production by lateral length, an important metric in the industry that takes into account that lateral lengths have increased over the years:

If one extrapolates these curves, you can roughly estimate the ultimate oil recovery for each of these vintages, for every 10k of lateral length.

Note that well productivity based on this metric radically increased up until about 2016, but that later wells are trending towards slightly lower EURs since, despite similar (or even higher) initial production rates. Removing any normalizing for lateral length shows that the 2020 vintage appears to be the high mark on EUR.

Gas Oil Ratios

Why does the Permian Basin, predominantly an oil basin, produce so much natural gas? An important piece of the answer to that is that there is rather a lot of natural gas produced with the oil and that the decline rate of the natural gas stream is quite a bit lower than for oil.

The following overview shows the map of all Permian horizontal wells, coloured by their recent gas/oil ratio (red is high), while the charts on the right plot the oil rate and the gas/oil ratio versus cumulative oil production:

In the bottom right chart, you will see how the gas/oil ratio changes for each vintage. The 1,871 horizontal wells that came online in 2013 started producing 2 Mcf of natural gas for each barrel of oil, but are now doing 4 times as much. The rate of increase is lower for newer wells, but they are still clearly curving upward.

Finally

Production and completion data are subject to revisions.

Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.

Sources

For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:

• Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
• OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
• FracFocus.org

Brief manual

The above presentations have many interactive features:

• You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
• Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individuals or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
• Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
• You can move the map around and zoom in/out.
• By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
• Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
• The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in the past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
• If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Key Takeaways

• Horizontal Permian tight oil production reached just below 5.3 million b/d in April 2023 after upcoming revisions.
• April 2023 Permian oil volumes were reported for just over 70% of wells, including about 85% coverage on the Texas side.
• Permian horizontal natural gas production was around 20.7 Bcf/d in April 2023 after upcoming revisions, setting a new record.
• 1,345 new horizontal wells started producing in the first three months of 2023 versus 1,413 in the same period of 2022.
• Baker Hughes data shows Permian horizontal rig count fell 4% since end of April to 333 rigs, marking the first real decline in almost three years.
• Delaware Basin drilling increased to 58% of active rigs across the Permian, continuing its rising share of activity.
• Novi Labs’ Supply Projection dashboard indicates Permian production would plateau if rig count drops by 100 from now until September 1st.
• Normalized by lateral length, Permian well productivity rose through about 2016 but shows slightly lower EURs for later vintages despite similar initial rates.