This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 138,874 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through August. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 15.7 billion bbl and 177 Tcf of natural gas. Ohio and West Virginia are excluded from most overviews, as they have not yet reported July/August production data.
US tight oil production made another small gain in August to almost 7.0 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions), as another 1,500 horizontal wells were returned to production. Tight gas output was flat m-o-m at 63 Bcf/d (excl. Ohio and West Virginia), down by 5 Bcf/d from the March level (68 Bcd/d).
Supply Projection dashboard
As a couple of hundred more wells resumed production in September, we expect to see a tiny gain in oil production for that month, probably the last one for several months to come as the over 50% decline in drilling activity will start to kick in again.
Still, the outlook is better than last month, as 281 rigs were drilling horizontal wells last week (according to the Baker Hughes rig count). This is not enough to sustain current output, but it is an increase of almost 30 compared with a month ago (252):
The screenshot above was taken from our Supply Projection dashboard, which is also available in the Ultimate version of ShaleProfile Analytics. Assuming no changes in rig count and productivity (both unrealistic), we project that tight oil supply will fall to close to 5 million bo/d in two years time.
The 10 largest operators are visualized in the last overview (“Top operators”). Exxon Mobil was the only one among these with an output in August close to its historical high.
I am happy to announce that we have a new dashboard in our ShaleProfile Analytics service (Professional and higher), in which permitting activity related to horizontal wells can be easily understood:
It is a real-time service which is updated several times a day with the latest permitting data. Ideal if you want to know how many permits are being issued, where exactly, and by whom. Currently 4 states are covered (Texas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and North Dakota), together good for about 80% of the US total. Other states will be added in the coming weeks.
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started.
Next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release October production data in the coming days.
Production data is subject to revisions.
For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below.
- Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
- Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
- Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
- Montana Board of Oil and Gas
- New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
- North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division
- Oklahoma Tax Commission
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
- Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
- Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
- Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
- West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
- West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
- Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.