US – update through July 2021

This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 152,640 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through June. Ohio & West Virginia are deselected in most views, as these states have not yet released July production data.

Total production

US tight oil production was flat m-o-m in July, at 7.2 million b/d (after upcoming revisions), almost 1.5 million b/d below the November 2019 peak. Natural gas output was also basically flat, at just above 70 Bcf/d (excluding Ohio & West Virginia).

Supply Projection

With the 475 rigs that are drilling horizontal wells in the 13 US states that we cover (according to Baker Hughes), we expect a gradual increase in tight oil & gas output in the coming months and years, assuming constant rig & well productivity. From our Supply Projection dashboard:

The bottom chart plots the historical and projected tight oil output, with these assumptions. US tight gas is already setting new records every month, despite that the gas-directed rig count has only moderately increased year to date.

Well productivity

The following overview shows how well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative oil recovered in the first 12 months, per 1,000′ of lateral length, has changed over time in the 4 major US tight oil basins:

Note how on this basis well productivity improvements have recently stalled, and even appear to be falling in some basins (DJ-Niobrara and the Eagle Ford). The 2 charts at the bottom display how lateral lengths and proppant loadings have changed in the same time frame, on average.

Continental Resources buying Pioneer’s Delaware assets

Yesterday, Continental Resources reported that it has agreed to buy the Delaware Basin assets of Pioneer Natural Resources for $3.25 billion. These assets produced about 44 thousand b/d in August, or 8% of Pioneer’s total production:

As you can see in the top-right chart, Pioneer’s production in the Delaware has steadily fallen over the last 2 years. This is probably related to deteriorating well performance since 2016:

Top operators

In the final tab the output and location of the 18 largest US shale oil producers are displayed. Pioneer Natural Resources would drop to the 3rd position after closing of this deal, behind EOG and ConocoPhillips.

Finally

Early next week we will have a post on North Dakota, which has already released September production data for over 90% of the horizontal wells (available in our subscription services).

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below.

• FracFocus.org
• Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
• Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
• Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
• Montana Board of Oil and Gas
• New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
• North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
• Ohio Department of Natural Resources
• Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division
• Oklahoma Tax Commission
• Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
• Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
• Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
• Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
• West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
• West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
• Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission

Brief manual

The above presentations have many interactive features:

• You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
• Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
• Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
• You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
• By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
• Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
• The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
• If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Enno Peters

Enno Peters is General Manager at Novi, where he has build an AI-driven data & analytics platform tailored for oil & gas operators and energy investors. Prior to Novi, Enno founded ShaleProfile which was acquired by Novi late 2021.