This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here
This interactive presentation contains the latest tight oil & gas production data from 80,918 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through October last year. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 7.7 Gbo and 81.1 Tcf.
October 2017 was another record month for US shale oil and gas production. About 10% more wells were completed in the first 10 months of the year, compared with 2016. Initial productivity was up as well, and together these 2 factors can explain the steady rise in output. Of course, as you can see in the individual basin posts, there are major differences across these plays. For example, the Eagle Ford failed to show any growth in this period, while oil output in the Niobrara in Colorado grew by an incredible 50%. You can also see this by selecting the individual basins in the ‘Basin’ selection below the graph.
Part of the apparent small decline in older well production in September and October is caused by inconsistent reporting by the Texas RRC (new wells from some operators have production reported, but are not yet shown on the related lease. As Texas doesn’t provide well level production data, this new production is thus incorrectly allocated to older wells).
The production profiles for all wells in the oily basins, averaged by starting year, are shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Not only do recent wells produce more oil, but if you change ‘Product’ to ‘gas’, you’ll note that gas production from these same wells has also been trending higher.
Of the top 5 operators, based on historical operated production capacity, EOG was the only operator that set a new record in October, at 465 thousand bo/d (see the ‘Top operators’ dashboard), despite the impact of Harvey in August.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. I’ve preselected the major oil basins, and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started.
As you can see here, the wells that started in 2016 are on a clearly higher recovery path than the 2011-2015 wells. The wells from before 2009 shown here are exclusively Bakken wells.
If you change the ‘Show wells by’ selection to ‘Quarter of first flow’, you will see more recent and granular data. You will also then note that since Q3 2016, well productivity hasn’t increased further so far, which corresponds with the increase in drilling and completion activities.
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Next week I will have a new post on the Niobrara. The next update on North Dakota may have to wait until the first week of March.
Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below.
- Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
- Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
- Montana Board of Oil and Gas
- New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
- North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
- Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
- West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
- West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey
- Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.