Novi Presents at SPE Permian Event: Inventory Exhaustion in the Midland Basin

How much quality inventory does the Permian have left to drill? Novi Machine Learning models provide an objective perspective on this critical question. We will be presenting on this subject at the upcoming SPE Permian Basin Data Analytics Study Group event. Details below!

Midland Basin drilled locations (left) and remaining inventory quality (right). Dark green represents Tier 1 Locations, dark red represents Tier 5.

Event Details::

  • Wednesday, November 17, 2021
  • 11:30 – 1:00 CST
  • Petroleum Professional Development Center, Midland College, 221 N. Main Street, Midland, TX 79701
  • Register HERE: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/9136507738106550540

Abstract::

Unconventional oil production in the Permian Basin reached a staggering 4 million barrels of oil a day in 2019, putting it amongst the most important oil fields in the world. After the older unconventional oil fields of the Bakken and Eagle Ford have reached peak production and entered decline, stakeholders across the industry are wondering how long the Permian will be able to sustain its outstanding performance.

We trained a machine learning model in the Midland Basin to analyze existing well performance and forecast production at undrilled locations around the basin. We analyzed breakevens for Lower Spraberry, Wolfcamp A, and Wolfcamp B wells at 880’ and 1320’ spacing, with 2000 lbs/ft proppant intensity. We binned drilled and remaining locations into five tiers based on forecasted EURs and NPVs. Using conservative assumptions of at least 1000’ spacing away from parent wells, we find that approximately 60% of Tier 1 locations have been drilled, 50% of Tiers 2-4 have been drilled, and 40% of Tier 5 has been drilled. These numbers compare favorably to older plays like the Bakken, where over 90% of top-tier locations have already been drilled. This suggests that availability of high-quality inventory should not be an obstacle to aggregate Midland Basin performance, though that may not hold true on the individual operator level.

In this talk, we will also discuss best practices, pitfalls, and strategies for building regional or basin-wide machine learning models, with an emphasis on the Permian, and we will discuss potential applications of this type of analysis to workflows for operators, investors, and researchers.

 

want to learn more? Reach out below!

Latest News

glossary(don't touch)

What is {{mpg_keyword}}? | Novi Labs

Oil & Gas Glossary {{mpg_keyword}}​ Confused by multitude of oil & gas data and analytics terms? Get easy-to-understand definitions in our glossary. Other terms What
Read More β†’
Release note

Novi Labs Releases Novi Data Network (NDN), Leveraging Proprietary Oil and Gas Data for AI Driven Well Forecasting Models

We are pleased to announce the release of Novi Data Network (NDN). NDN allows oil & gas operators to collectively pool their production and completion
Read More β†’
Exhibition / Event

Novi Attends URTeC 2023!

Novi is excited to be exhibiting at BOOTH 1341. and presenting seven papers! Click through for the full schedule.
Read More β†’

News, trends and data for the US upstream industry

Novi Energy Newsletter

Sign up today for free and get a weekly email with news and insights on important developments in one or two of the major tight oil & gas basins.

Name(Required)
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

INTRODUCING CAUSAL MODELS

Accurate forecast on parent-child developments

In this live webinar, you will learn how Novi’s new algorithm improves model sensitivity for spacing and parent-child scenarios, providing powerful results for previously difficult-to-analyze problems.

Ted Cross, our VP of Product Management, will show you how this update improves spacing and infill scenario analysis without sacrificing model accuracy.