[SPE Austin 2023] Midland Basin Performance & Inventory Analysis

Permian Basin well performance has been a hot topic in the industry since 2022 saw the first year-over-year decline in the basin’s history. In this analysis, we use our machine learning models to investigate the relative contributions of inventory exhaustion, completions design changes, increased lateral lengths, parent-child degradation, and downspacing on well performance in the Midland Basin. We find that much of the apparent decline is due to artificially high production in 2020 & 2021 due to operator high grading. We also analyze remaining inventory across the major benches and compare to other plays as part of our supply outlook, finding that, while top-tier rock is more drilled than lower-quality rock, the Midland still has years of high-quality inventory remaining.