This is an older blog post, you will find one on more recent data here
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 28,999 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through November.
Permian tight oil production rose in November by 1% m-o-m to ~3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Natural gas production is with 14.8 Bcf/d close to a record level and the basin is now about 25% gassier than 2 years ago, as fewer wells came online last year(new wells start with a low gas-to-oil ratio). I expect that this trend will continue as the basin continues to age, simply because the gas-to-oil ratio for older wells is even higher (~6 Mcf/bbl after 5 years on average).
Since our update on this basin last month, another 22 rigs returned here to drill horizontal wells (to 193 as of last week according to Baker Hughes). As you can find in our Supply Projection dashboard, this number can sustain current production levels in the long-run assuming constant rig & well productivity:
This also means that with the recent increase in oil prices and thus probably more rigs returning to this area, we might soon start to see rising output again.
For example, in the following scenario in which I’ve assumed that the rig count would gradually grow to 300 by the end of this year and stay there (and again assuming no changes in productivity), production would rise to well over 5 million bo/d in a couple of years:
You can create your own projections for any area and for both tight oil & gas in our subscription service.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview displays the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.
The more modest improvements in performance since 2016 are visible here.
We will have a new post on the Eagle Ford later this week.
Production and completion data are subject to revisions.
Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
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