US – update through December 2021

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 157,040 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through November. West Virginia is excluded, as it hasn’t reported Q4 production data yet.

Total production

US tight oil production was up by about 1% in December, at 7.7 million b/d (after upcoming revisions), the highest level in over 1.5 years, and just 0.7 million b/d below the peak in 2019. Tight gas output set a fresh record in December, at over 80 Bcf/d (excluding West Virginia and after upcoming revisions).

Supply Projection

Currently 607 rigs are drilling horizontal wells in the 13 US states that we cover (according to Baker Hughes). What that means for future supply is visible in this overview from our Supply Projection dashboard:

As you can find in the bottom chart, with the current level of drilling (607 horizontal rigs in the 13 states we track), a new all-time high can be expected near the end of this year (if not sooner), with 5 million b/d coming from the Permian.

Well productivity

The following chart reveals how well productivity has changed in the 4 major tight oil basins over the last decade:

Well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative oil recovered in the first 6 months, has continued to increase in the Permian basin, despite the rise in completion activity. A horizontal well completed in the Permian last year recovered on average almost 120 thousand barrels of oil during the first 6 months. Note the surprising increase in well results in the Eagle Ford, after several years of stagnation. These results are not normalized for the increase in lateral lengths.

Top operators

In the final tab the output and location of the 15 largest US shale oil producers are displayed. The 2 shale oil operators with the fastest growth in the 2nd half of last year were Continental Resources and Endeavor Energy.

Finally

Our next post will be on North Dakota, which already released February production data  (available in our subscription services).

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below.

• FracFocus.org
• Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
• Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
• Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
• Montana Board of Oil and Gas
• New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
• North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
• Ohio Department of Natural Resources
• Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division
• Oklahoma Tax Commission
• Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
• Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
• Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
• Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
• West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
• West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
• Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission

Brief manual

The above presentations have many interactive features:

• You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
• Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
• Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
• You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
• By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
• Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
• The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
• If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Key Takeaways

• US tight oil production rose about 1% in December to 7.7 million b/d, the highest level in over 1.5 years.
• December tight oil output was about 0.7 million b/d below the 2019 peak after upcoming revisions.
• US tight gas output exceeded 80 Bcf/d in December, setting a new record excluding West Virginia and after upcoming revisions.
• Baker Hughes reported 607 rigs drilling horizontal wells across the 13 tracked states.
• The Supply Projection dashboard indicates current drilling levels could drive a new US tight oil all-time high near year-end.
• The Supply Projection dashboard projects roughly 5 million b/d of tight oil from the Permian Basin near year-end at current activity.
• Permian horizontal wells completed last year recovered almost 120 thousand barrels of oil on average in the first 6 months.
• Continental Resources and Endeavor Energy were the two shale oil operators with the fastest growth in the second half of last year.